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The Monty Hall Problem

Started by Hardy Heinlin, Thu, 23 Feb 2023 10:08

Hardy Heinlin

The original example with 3 doors is now extended to an example with 100 doors, here at 3:54:

But why, of all possibilities, does she open 98 doors? I think, to exaggerate the original 3-door example, where 1 of the remaining 2 was opened, there are actually three possibiities when 99 of 100 are left closed:

a) Open 98 of 99 doors, so that 1 remains closed (as she did).
b) Open just 1 of 99 doors, so that 98 remain closed (just 1 opened as in the 3-door example).
c) Open 50 % of the 99 doors (50 % opened as in the 3-door example).

I don't get why they always use a) for their exaggerated illustration.

If we use method a) or b) the probability will be completely different.

I would use method c) because 50 % equally describe the 3-door example as well as the 100-door example.



This guy explains it very well:

There are two doors which the host will never open: The door that you selected and the door that has the money.
So, now only 1 of 3 doors has the money. That makes the 2/3 probability which suggests to switch to that door. Statistically, in 67 of 100 attempts, that door will have the money.

Much better explained than with that 100-door exaggeration.

Takayoshi Sasano

Indeed a good explanation.

But watching a bearded man lying on a table in front of a camera still makes me feel a little uncomfortable ;D



Hardy Heinlin

Well, he wasn't naked. So I trusted him.