Malaysian 777 missing in action

[Michael]

Several times I heard from people who had forgot to switch off their mobiles during flight. Arriving at the destination, they found welcome-SMS of all overflown countries. In theory it is always said that this should not work because of the high cruising altitude. In practice, lot's of people tell exactly this story. Nevertheless I also think that, dialing a victims cell phone number, it only responses the network, not the mobile.

Moments before AF447 plunged into the sea, not less than 24 ACARS messages were sent by the Airbus A330-200. Regarding MH370 we were told that there were only a few pings. Would a B772 not sent messages when alt decreases rapidly or engines stop working due to fuel shortage?

At the moment I think of a confused hijacker who does not really know what he wants, issuing conflicting demands several times. Or a kidnapper group facing problems to carry out their plan or in dispute with each other, flying around "helplessly". Fuel comes to an end, finally. In both cases an aircraft specialist must be involved.

[Phil Bunch]

I assume that the NSA and its affiliated agencies have easy access to many more data and other transmissions than the civilian world knows about.  But they will probably never admit to this, much like the other military organizations.

It's too bad they can't somehow release at least some of their information in case of emergencies...

[Phil Bunch]

See this article by the NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?ref=todayspaper

This may be behind their paywall, so I'll quote a small excerpt:

"Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appeared to show that the missing airliner climbed to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and turned sharply to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data.

The radar track, which the Malaysian government has not released but says it has provided to the United States and China, showed that the plane then descended unevenly to 23,000 feet, below normal cruising levels, as it approached the densely populated island of Penang.

There, officials believe, the plane turned from a southwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean."

In another article, lithium batteries are claimed to be a possible cause of the accident:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-370.html?ref=todayspaper

"Investigators also are looking at the possibility that a shipment of lithium batteries in the cargo hold may have caught fire and felled the aircraft. A senior American official who had been briefed on the contents listed on the plane's cargo manifest said a "significant load" of lithium batteries had been aboard — raising suspicions because of previous cargo-plane crashes attributed to lithium battery shipments, which can overheat and cause intense fires. But that possibility is inconsistent with information that the plane may have kept flying for hours after it vanished."

[Will]

Interesting article based on a statement from the Malaysian Prime Minister, quoting FAA and NTSB sources, saying the plane could be in central Asia. Look carefully at the map in the article. The last satellite data puts MH370 either in the ocean or else over central Asia, which includes western China, homeland of the Chinese separatist Uyghur movement.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/15/flight_370_disappearance_missing_airliner_apparently_flew_to_central_asia.html

[Jeroen D]

Concerning tracking: many phones have a few cell modems plus WiFi plus Bluetooth and possibly even more. All of these can give away your position, and not all of these are switched off by Air Mode.

Not switched off by air mode? Would that not defeat the purpose of having an air or airplane mode in the first place?

Jeroen

[Jeroen D]

Couple of things on the various mobile phone myths surrounding this tragic incident.

As pointed out earlier, the fact that you hear a ring tone, doesn't necessarily mean the mobile phone on the other end is ringing. It could be just the network. People still sort of think as a mobile call is a sort of one to one connection. It is, of course, but through a complex maze of routers, switches, fiber, microwave connections and various other radio frequencies. It all zero's and one's.

It is technically feasible or possible to be in range of a mobile network at say 35.000 feet. It is just not very likely. Mobile Network Operators want to provide radio coverage on the ground, not in the air. So typically your antenna's are pointing downwards. By the way, just because you see the antenna's mounted on the towers vertical doesn't mean they radiated evenly along a horizontal axes. We use electronic tilt.  Radiowaves being radio waves and propagation will mean you get coverage in various spots, including at 35000 feet. A lot will depend on the technology and the frequency used. The higher the frequency (e.g. 1800-2300 band) the less coverage you get. 800-900Mhz will reach much further. And the old 450Mhz systems such as NMT450 had an incredible range.

When I was based in the USA and piloting my own planes, such as Cessna, Cirrus, Diamond I did some testing. I think I wrote about it on this forum as well. Cant remember the exact numbers anymore. But in general you would not get voice or data coverage above 10-12000 feet. That doesn't mean it can't happen.

Mobile network are planned so that coverage is provided through contagious "cells". Once your mobile phone is properly identified in the mobile network the network knows in which cell you reside. It will also know which are the neighboring cells. As you move toward the edges of your cell, radio coverage will weaken and the system will decide to hand you over to the next cell. This all happens without us users knowing, its a seamless handover, providing the system is well optimized.

These cells are planned out on the ground, based on frequency planning, power output etc. Obviously, some of that radio energy will make it all the way up to 35.000 feet. However, at that altitude the same cells might not be present, so the system doesn't know to which cell you need be handed over. In such a case you would experience a dropped call and or data session. As long as you have coverage, you will be able to call again, but you are unlikely to experience smooth seamless handovers at those altitudes.

Depending on country, technology, competition and sometimes legislation, operators will or will not allow you to roam between them. So there might be a network and your phone will actually pick up its signal, but it is not allowed to attach/register itself. If that happens during a call or data session, again the call will drop. Cross country roaming is mostly not allowed and also has some legal challenges.

So, if a mobile phone is switched on and registered in a particular mobile network, it is known in which cell the phone is located. And of course, the operator will know where that cell is, geographically speaking. Depends a bit, but a cell could be several square kilometers or even larger to something only say 100 square meters.

Within most mobile networks there are technical possibilites to narrow down the location even further. Either through what is essentially triangulation or by the help of built in GPS in your (smart) phone. In some countries it is legal requirement for the mobile operator to provide precise location information with any call to emergency services (e.g. 911). So they immediately know your location.

All of the above is based on a known mobile in a known mobile network. Once you know the number you can start looking for it. If you don't know the number or you don't know the mobile network it becomes very tricky, proverbial needle in the haystack type of scenario.

The idea that you can simply trace a mobile phone that is switched on is therefor in practice a little bit more complex. Lots of articles these days on NSA capabilities. I have no idea of their capabilities other than what I can make up from the various news articles. As they tend to be written by journalists rather than Telecom and or ICT specialist I'm not so sure what they can or can't. But it seems they listen in to calls rather then actually physically locate a phone. Two very different things.

 There is this persistent believe that mobile phones can be traced, even when switched off. In order for that to happen we need something akin to a Men on the moon conspiracy to make that happen. There are literally thousand of engineers involved in the specification,  standardization and design of Mobile telephony systems.

What is true is that when you switch of your phone, the location where you switched off is likely to be known. You move away from that position with your phone switched off, nobody is going to be the wiser!

Jeroen

[Richard McDonald Woods]

Jeroen,
A most interesting post. Ta.

[mannd]

Interesting report that one of the pilots had a flight simulator in their home.  I wonder what the details are?

[Michael]

farrokh747 posted this on Monday 5th, 2014:

http://www.sharelor.net/1/post/2014/03/tribute-who-exactly-is-malaysia-airlines-captain-zaharie-shah-of-mh370.html

[mannd]

Interesting link.  He sounds very normal.  Truly a mystery what happened up there.

[400guy]

This topic is far afield from the purpose of this board, but I find the comments here (generally) VERY interesting and informative.

I hope that you will stick with me as I explain just why this particular topic is of concern to me.

As some of you know, I'm a retired UAL pilot.  Way back in the past I was in a "line of flying" (pairing of trips to be flown) that included UAL 811.  I'd been flying that trip quite a bit, and so was very interested in following the investigation after the cargo door came off.

There was a very good Television show about it on which the family of one of those lost was interviewed.  (There have been several others, but that is the only one which FULLY brought out how the investigation was conducted.

Just reading the accident reports doen not give an insight into how difficult it was to get the FAA, Boeing, and United to get to the truth.

I bring this up as the similarity to what is going on with this investigation bothers me quite a lot.

In the 811 incident the blaim was initially placed mostly on the ground crew accused of not closing the door properly.

In this case the crew is being looked at closely as perhaps being responsible.

In both cases there was an AD issued, and in the case of 811 not complied with.
In this one Boeing is saying that the AD does not apply as the antenna in question was not installed. (I don't know anything about the 777, but reports now say that the airplane was "pinging" a satellite, (perhaps a second satcom antenna?)

My concern is that there are airplanes flying around that ARE subject to this AD (even if this particular one was not one of them), with a KNOWN potential for a depressurazation, as was the case with 811.

Given the lengths that were taken with 811 to not acknowledge the true cause of the accident, I can't help but feel that the FAA, and Boeing (and others) could be hoping that this airplane is never found.  It COULD cause the same embarresmsnt and financial problems for them that the recovered cargo door off 811 did!

jj

[Phil Bunch]

The UK newspaper "The Guardian" has some interesting information:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/flight-mh370-last-message-communications-disabled-malaysia

Some excerpts:

The latest revelation suggests that the person who delivered the "All right, good night" message to Kuala Lumpur air traffic controllers just before the Boeing-777 disappeared from their radar at 1.22am and diverted from its scheduled flightpath to Beijing was also aware that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (Acars) had been manually shut down.



Experts on aircraft maintenance have explained that the plane's communications system can only be disabled manually – a process that requires switching a number of cockpit controls in sequence until a computer screen necessitates a keyboard input.



Police had questioned Zaharie's friends and family, and dismantled and reassembled at headquarters a flight simulator Zaharie kept in his house on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur.



The satellite "pings" that were last read at 8.11am on Saturday – six hours after Malaysian military radar last detected the aircraft over the Malacca strait at 2.15am – could still have been transmitting data from the ground, if the plane were to have landed, said Malaysia's civil aviation chief, Abdul Rahman.

"The plane can still transmit pings from the ground as long as there is electrical power," he said.

[74pilot]

I haven't read all the posts here, but I just want to say that I think this is some kind of major failure in the MEC.

Despite all the redundancy, almost all major systems have to meet in the MEC and the flight deck. Something could have happened, whether explosion, flooding (from potable water tanks), crew oxygen bottle failure or other severe physical impact, which destroyed all the electric buses. It would explain most of the (credible) information released so far. If you know of the UA232 Sioux City accident, think of three independent hydraulic systems taken out by one single failure of the #2 engine (because all three systems had hydraulic lines routed close to each other)

A short circuit of some sort has happened to a United 777 in LHR, during pushback - it was quite serious, but luckily they were on the ground.

No matter how many electric power sources you have for redundancy, if the system itself is burned, it will not matter. On a 777, as far as I am informed, only the standby compass, one spoiler on each wing and limited horizontal stab trim is left. No lights, warnings, screens, speed - not even altitude is available! And then in the middle of the night. Maybe it is time to bring back the good old pressure altimeter, air speed indicator and an artificial horizon driven by something other than the electric buses?

If major electrical failure is really the case, the aircraft could have been flying for hours. Each engine can suction feed with the engine driven fuel pump, and each engine has a little generator independent of the normal and standby generator, driving the FADEC directly. If each engine has it's own little Inmarsat transmitter, then that explains why that is the only signal left, after all other coms stopped working. Over the days, "stopped transmitting" has been changed by the authorities and general public opinion to "was switched off", despite no evidence yet why the systems stopped working. People want to believe that the aircraft has been hidden on an exotic island and everyone is safe (but hijacked/kidnapped) - I hope it is true, though I find it less plausible.

Without electric buses, the engines would not be able to be cut off, as both fuel control switches and fire switches need electricity to work. If no rudder or aileron is available, engines running on the last thrust setting until the failure was encountered - can you imagine what will happen when the first engine flames out? It won't be pretty, but it has to end somehow. You won't even know when it happens, as there isn't even any fuel quantity indication.

Whatever failure it was could have been a failure which also ruptured the cabin to an extent where they also suffered decompression, though it doesn't change much whether they depressurised or not. If it was an oxygen bottle failure, that could have taken away the oxygen for the crew as well. Bummer.

As long as the aircraft is in trim and the engines keep going, it could have been flying by itself for hours. Even the pressurisation system could have been working, high flow and the pressure relief valves keeping just over 9 PSI diff.

I hope I am proved wrong, because if not, this will be a huge blow to 777 operators, and Boeing in particular.

[John Golin]

Although;

Comms didn't stop working - someone logged out of ACARS prior to the transponder signal disappearing, which is a deliberate action, not a failure.

The disappearance occurred at precisely the point of handover between two countries.

The aircraft appears to have followed a route between IFR waypoints to the west unrelated to it's original route - these are FIR boundaries and not airways, so extremely unlikely not to be a deliberate action especially if you want to avoid 'transiting' airspace, and it requires FMC entry.

The aircraft seems to have been travelling at FL295 - an interesting choice as it sits between FL300 and FL290, avoiding other traffic.

There were no comms - zero - from the aircraft. No ELT (not even a portable one from the cabin).

[74pilot]

FL295 ... that is taken from primary radar?

In that case, remember that primary radar sees true altitude, whereas FL are pressure altitude.

It is normal to log out of ACARS from "Lumpur" before you go to Vietnam.

I am not saying it couldn't be terrorism or an illegal act, just that there could be other explanations than some illegal act.

The aircraft should have - probably 2 - Rescue 406 beacons or similar. If the crew had thought about it, they could have activated them even inside the aircraft. Either they didn't think about it, weren't able to, didn't think it was necessary or were otherwise prevented from activating them.

Depending on the generation of Rescue 406, they would have to be put in a bag of water, or salt water, to activate. They should easily have been able to see a COSPAT SARSAT enabled satellite, and it only takes a window of a few seconds to get the message through.

A lot of strange things about MH370. Scary.

[74pilot]

Hoppie, there are conflicting reports going on. I'm hearing (1) that ACARS was turned off, and (2) the engines kept "pinging" satellites every half-hour for several hours. Can both of those be true at the same time? Can the engines somehow ping or transmit independently of ACARS?

This single piece of information is essential to know, and I wish I did. I have heard colleges say it must go via the onboard SATCOM, others say it has its own, but that has been guesses only.

I find it possible that the RR Trent 892 engine has it's own satellite transmitter and hence could function as long as the engine(s) is/are running.

[farrokh747]

http://tmfassociates.com/blog/2014/03/

interesting read.....

[Arnout van Maanen]

another theory.  Possible or to far fetched?

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

I thought it might be possible. The captain was able to train this on his sim. However there still needs to be a motive.

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

It is unlikely that there is independent Inmarsat on an engine. The cost is prohibitive and the weight impossible, let alone the bathtub-sized antenna fairing. However it is not impossible to put up Iridium. Even this I doubt, it is against common practice. Everything is relayed through one CMU that selects the cheapest radio (data plan is everything!). The rumours have it that the system worked but that Malaysian didn't have a monthly plan so they did not receive their data (cost versus utility decision). But the machine sends it. It is just the comms company not relaying.


Hoppie

[John H Watson]

Something from the conspiracy theorists  :mrgreen:

A new report circulating in the Kremlin today prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU) states that Aerospace Defence Forces (VKO) experts remain "puzzled" as to why the United States Navy "captured and then diverted" a Malaysia Airlines civilian aircraft from its intended flight-path to their vast and highly-secretive Indian Ocean base located on the Diego Garcia atoll.
According to this report, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (also marketed as China Southern Airlines flight 748 through a codeshare) was a scheduled passenger flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China, when on 8 March this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft "disappeared" in flight with 227 passengers on board from 15 countries, most of whom were Chinese, and 12 crew members.
Interesting to note, this report says, was that Flight 370 was already under GRU "surveillance" after it received a "highly suspicious" cargo load that had been traced to the Indian Ocean nation Republic of Seychelles, and where it had previously been aboard the US-flagged container ship MV Maersk Alabama.

What first aroused GRU suspicions regarding the MV Maersk Alabama, this report continues, was that within 24-hours of off-loading this "highly suspicious" cargo load bound for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, the two highly-trained US Navy Seals assigned to protect it, Mark Daniel Kennedy, 43, and Jeffrey Keith Reynolds, 44, were found dead under "suspicious circumstances."
Both Kennedy and Reynolds, this report says, were employed by the Virginia Beach, Virginia-based maritime security firm The Trident Group which was founded by US Navy Special Operations Personnel (SEAL's) and Senior US Naval Surface Warfare Officers and has long been known by the GRU to protect vital transfers of both atomic and biological materials throughout the world.

Upon GRU "assests" confirming that this "highly suspicious" cargo was aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 on 8 March, this report notes, Moscow notified China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) of their concerns and received "assurances" that "all measures" would be taken as to ascertain what was being kept so hidden when this aircraft entered into their airspace.
However, this report says, and as yet for still unknown reasons, the MSS was preparing to divert Flight 370 from its scheduled destination of Beijing to Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) located in Hainan Province (aka Hainan Island).
Prior to entering the People Liberation Army (PLA) protected zones of the South China Sea known as the Spratly Islands, this report continues, Flight 370 "significantly deviated" from its flight course and was tracked by VKO satellites and radar flying into the Indian Ocean region and completing its nearly 3,447 kilometer (2,142 miles) flight to Diego Garcia.
Critical to note about Flight 370's flight deviation, GRU experts in this report say, was that it occurred during the same time period that all of the Spratly Island mobile phone communications operated by China Mobile were being jammed.

China Mobile, it should be noted, extended phone coverage in the Spratly Islands in 2011 so that PLA soldiers stationed on the islands, fishermen, and merchant vessels within the area would be able to use mobile services, and can also provide assistance during storms and sea rescues.
As to how the US Navy was able to divert Flight 370 to its Diego Garcia base, this report says, appears to have been accomplished remotely as this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft is equipped with a fly-by-wire (FBW) system that replaces the conventional manual flight controls of an aircraft with an electronic interface allowing it to be controlled like any drone-type aircraft.
However, this report notes, though this aircraft can be controlled remotely, the same cannot be said of its communication systems which can only be shut down manually; and in the case of Flight 370, its data reporting system was shut down at 1:07 a.m., followed by its transponder (which transmits location and altitude) which was shut down at 1:21 a.m.
What remains "perplexing" about this incident, GRU analysts in this report say, are why the American mainstream media outlets have yet to demand from the Obama regime the radar plots and satellite images of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions as the US military covers this entire area from Diego Garcia like no other seas in the world due to its vital shipping and air lanes.
Most sadly, this report concludes, the US is actually able to conceal the reason(s) for the "disappearance" of Flight 370 as they have already done so after the events of 11 September 2011 when the then Bush regime "disappeared" American Airlines Flight 77 and its 64 passengers and crew after falsely claiming it hit the Pentagon, but which was confirmed by the CNN News Service [see video HERE] not to have happened.
Source