Hurricane Matthew

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

Grrrrrrr.



Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.






Hoppie

[cavaricooper]

Bed and bath available in Tampa.... come fly PSX w/ me this weekend. The wives can go shopping:)

C

[cagarini]

Windy... I dare say....

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

[Will]

Best wishes for the storm's safe passage.

I was in HK for Typhoon Nida this summer, and it was as good as one could wish: lots of drama, little damage, no injuries. I was on vacation so it was mildly bothersome to have to stay in the hotel all day, but nothing to complain about. The hotel had cold beer and a good view of the storm over Kowloon Bay.

[Phil Bunch]

Wishing for you and your family success and the best of luck in avoiding the storm and its hazards.

Is your family going to stay in place or relocate inland for a day or two?

--------------------------------------------------------------------

From my only experience coping with a hurricane (while on vacation (at the Outer Banks of North Carolina), reasonable safety is usually available 50-100 miles inland as long as your motel is on high ground and away from any type of stream or river.  I was surprised at how small the most severe part of that hurricane was (about 10 miles wide, Hurricane Bob, in the 1990s).  We packed up and drove inland for 24 hours to avoid being flooded out at the beachfront motel.  The Outer Banks was under a mandatory evacuation order, so that stopped any ideas of riding the storm out while having a "hurricane party".

Hurricane Matthew's computer model-projected track now seems to feature some sort of unusual (?) offshore clockwise circle with its leftmost edge on the coast.  The TV news and weather channels are using live announcers stationed at the beach in Florida;  as of about 1pm on Thursday they don't show too much wind or rain yet but they are still forecasting 100 mph+ winds for several hours.  At the moment (1pm, Thurs) they seem to be most concerned about areas somewhat north of Miami. 

Please keep us informed of your situation if circumstances permit.

[jb747]

Hoppie,

Stay safe or get safe.  A cat 4 hurricane is nothing to mess around with.  I still remember stories of the folks in the Keys that had a home on stilts and thought they would hold a hurricane party instead of evacuating.  They all floated away... never to be seen again.

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

I reckon we're out of it already. Never were in it. Note: Miami is so far South that this time, we escaped a cat 4 by about 40 miles. Some rain here (for Miami, not even bad) and a bit of wind. I have had much worse weather during regular afternoon thunderstorms. Or Isaac, that passed through the Gulf on the other Florida coast.



And now we can prep for the next encounter with Matthew:



NOTE: the rest of Florida better hunker down . . . this ain't going to be funny!



Hoppie

[Phil Bunch]

I found this web article on alternative measures of hurricane severity to be interesting. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wind-speed-alone-isnt-the-best-way-to-measure-a-weird-hurricane-like-matthew/?ex_cid=538email

In addition to claiming that wind damage approximately scales as wind speed to the third power, they advocate for more informative storm metrics such as Total Kinetic Energy and "Surge Destructive Potential" as more informative measures than the Saffir-Simpson Category 0-6 scale or the average or peak wind speed.

In each situation, the location of the storm's activities relative to one's location must be considered, of course.
----------------------------

Regardless, I was very glad to see that this hurricane seems to have mostly missed the subregion where Jeroen lives and works!

----------------------------
I also enjoyed some US military's web pages re their Hurricane Hunter unit and its specialized WC-130J aircraft.

http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About/FactSheets/Display/tabid/9106/Article/192529/53rd-weather-reconnaissance-squadron-hurricane-hunters.aspx

http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/About/FactSheets/Display/tabid/9106/Article/192525/wc-130j-hercules.aspx

Excerpts:

The WC-130J provides data vital to tropical cyclone forecasting. The WC-130J usually penetrates hurricanes at an altitude of approximately 10,000 feet to collect meteorological data in the vortex, or eye, of the storm. The aircraft normally flies a radius of about 105 miles from the vortex to collect detailed data about the structure of the tropical cyclone.

SPECIFICATIONS:

Primary function: Weather Reconnaissance
Primary contractor: Lockheed-Martin
Power plant/manufacturer: Four Rolls-Royce AE 2100D3 turboprops
Horsepower: More than 4,700 horsepower each engine
Length: 97 feet, 9 inches (29.3 meters)
Height: 38 feet, 10 inches (11. 9 meters)
Wingspan: 132 feet, 7 inches (39.7 meters)
Speed: 417 mph/362 ktas (Mach 0.59) at 22,000 feet (6,706 meters)
Ceiling: 28,000 feet (8,615 meters) with 42,000 pounds (19,090 kilograms) payload
Maximum Range with 35,000 pound payload: 1,841 miles (1,600 nautical miles)
Maximum takeoff weight: 155,000 pounds (69,750 kilograms)
Crew: Five (pilot, co-pilot, a navigator, aerial reconnaissance weather officer, and weather reconnaissance loadmaster)