Hurricane Irma now Cat 5, 180 mph sustained winds, gusts to 220 mph

[Phil Bunch]

Astonishing winds, strengthening from 9-4-2017 thru 9-5-2017.

I can't imagine 220 mph wind gusts nor can I imagine 180 mph sustained winds now measured for this new Category 5 hurricane.  It seems to me that a new, higher category is needed (e.g., Category 6).

I hope that Jeroen H and others in Florida who may be in the path of this hurricane find convenient relocation and safety if needed.  It is impractical to safely ride out the storm and inevitable automobile traffic jams make evacuating difficult.

Hurricanes are difficult to react to in terms of planning one's escape path since hurricane paths are so unpredictable until roughly 12-24 hours before making landfall.

Wishing the best for everyone in the storm's path...

---------
Jeroen H - are you currently at home or has your work taken you elsewhere for the next 5 days?

[Will]

Recent hurricanes have shown us that the risk is highly dependent on your own personal circumstances. Are you an a flood plain? Are you at risk from high winds? Are the roads to your place (and thus your access to groceries and fuel) vulnerable?

Stay smart and stay safe, my friends who are in harm's way. Best wishes all around. This one, like the last one, looks pretty bad.

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

I'm at home. Pondering our options. Evacuating out of state is neigh impossible as we need to travel 500+ miles due North together with a few million others over basically 2.5 motorways. Fuel is already hard to get. Supplies run out quickly. And three days to wait, idling, trying to make plans.

House has been boarded up 75%, need a bit more work with alu shutters, and a few makeshift patches. Flooding, not necessarily an issue where I live. Nobody knows, really.

Irma track prediction unsure yet, but South Florida and likely the whole of the state will get a firm punch. It's basically a matter of a full eye hit or a narrow eye miss, but no way we miss the whole of the hurricane wind field.

Tough.


H

[andrej]

Hoppie,

stay safe! How far are you from flood areas? Board your house (btw, is it Hurricane proved?), but wouldn't it be better to go to some community shelter (like local schools) for the duration of the storm?

Cheers,

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

House should be ok, neighbour's house is where we will shelter. Communal shelters are far away and getting there and eventually back isn't straightforward in a city where the only reasonable transport, the personal car, is defunct due to fuel and grid locks.

We are in evacuation zone "D"; A and B will likely be evacuated, parts of C, but not D. 11km from the oceanfront. Storm surge should not be a big problem right here. Rain flood, of course, always is.


H

[cagarini]

Hope all is well with the girls!

[Phil Bunch]

Watch out for the alligators and snakes!  The rain and flooding will bring them out by the millions!!!

[Will]

And 3-5 days of food and water if you don't have it already.

[Will]

Airplane enthusiasts' beloved Famous St. Martin airport badly damaged by Irma:


http://abcnews.go.com/International/st-martins-famous-airport-badly-damaged-hurricane-irma/story?id=49684005

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

... still here ... all preparations complete ... now the long wait starts ...

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

Interesting track developments. With a bit of "luck" this thing crashes over the full Florida runway from South to North. I wonder whether there is a more damaging scenario at all.


H

[evaamo]

Be safe Hoppie! hope everything turns out fine.

We had our share of mother nature here in Mexico City last night. Fortunately only thing affected on my end were nerves and anxiety levels. Not so lucky in some other areas, sadly.

Anyway, take good care of yourselves there!!!

cheers
-E

[Phil Bunch]

Interesting track developments. With a bit of "luck" this thing crashes over the full Florida runway from South to North. I wonder whether there is a more damaging scenario at all.


H

Hoppie,

I just watched the TV news report a revised projected storm path.  The latest theory is that the center of Irma will pass over the west coast of Florida.  I would think this is a good thing in terms of reducing risk to the much larger number of people sheltering in Miami compared to the much less populated west coast.   

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-top-end-cat-4-storm-now-less-two-days-florida

My limited understanding is that the most intense hurricane winds are mostly confined to the 10-20 mile diameter core of the hurricane.  Thus, if Irma does track more to the west as they are now predicting as I type this note, Miami may "only" see sustained winds up to about 80-100 mph.   This is much better than the previously predicted sustained winds of 130-150 mph (kinetic energy depends on the square of wind speed, and property damage varies non-linearly with speed).

(A caution - don't depend on my ad hoc weather comments - be sure and obtain *official* forecasts and instructions!)

Most of all, be safe!  Please keep us informed about your status if circumstances permit.

[Will]

23:00 EDT update just issued.


Good news for Hoppie: prediction cone moving farther west.


Bad news for many other people: it's back to Category 5.

[Phil Bunch]

23:00 EDT update just issued.


Good news for Hoppie: prediction cone moving farther west.


Bad news for many other people: it's back to Category 5.

I just reviewed its status and was disappointed to see that its sustained winds are 160 mph, with gusts to 195 mph...the reason cited for its restrengthening was the higher than normal temperature of the ocean in that area - hurricanes mostly draw their energy from the water at the surface.

The major US TV news channels are running hurricane-related news nonstop most of the time. 

I hope this situation moderates soon...

[cavaricooper]

23:00 EDT update just issued.


Good news for Hoppie: prediction cone moving farther west.


Bad news for many other people: it's back to Category 5.

In Tampa... not good news... we are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best... God Bless all in Irma's path.

C

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

Yes we are a bit less worried here now, but still we will relocate to the neighbours whose house is sturdier than ours. At the moment mainly driving rain. Winds, not yet. We are 11 km inland and not in a evacuation zone so we hope to not get flooding except for the usual 1 ft of water on the road, which is lower than the houses for exactly this reason.

Plenty of live TV around so I won't bother you posting links... gather your own news, before this skill is lost to the nation...


H

[Hardy Heinlin]

Good luck everyone!


|-|ardy

[martin]

+1 as they say...

Martin

[cagarini]

Indeed,

+1