Predicted effects of global warming on aviation

[Phil Bunch]

The NY Times just published an interesting article on the basic effects of the currently predicted global warming on aviation.  They also provide a link to a free PDF of a journal article on this issue.  The authors are not aviation experts so their research is basic (but still interesting).  They do some analysis at 4 US airports regarding the associated cargo weight reductions and other things, including predicted jet stream changes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/business/flying-climate-change.html?ref=todayspaper

A paragraph from the Times article follows:
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Too Hot to Fly? Climate Change May Take a Toll on Air Travel

Excess heat in Phoenix grounded more than 40 flights in recent days, and scientists say a warming climate could also mean more turbulent rides.

<snip>

In recent days, American Airlines has been forced to cancel more than 40 flights in Phoenix. The reason: With daytime highs hovering around 120 degrees, it was simply too hot for some smaller jets to take off. Hotter air is thinner air, which makes it more difficult — and sometimes impossible — for planes to generate enough lift.
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Here's a cited journal article, in PDF format:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00026.1

[Will]

I do not know if this story is true, but I heard that 120-degree weather in Phoenix a while back led to numerous cancelations, but not for the reason you might think. It wasn't because it was too hot to take off, rather, it was because the takeoff charts maxed out at 120 degrees. So the performance people simply did more math and extended the charts to 130 degrees, and Phoenix was back in business. Apocryphal?

[Hessel Oosten]

An argument for Will's theory is the following:

Once I travelled from Orlando to Amsterdam.
It was VERY hot and the plane had some delays.
When it was ready in the end to leave the gate, the Capt'n announced that the heat on the runways had increased so much that we were overweight.
The steward held 50 dollar above his head and asked if there were 4 passengers who were willing to leave the plane. After increasing several times and announcing a hotel-bed he succeeded.

So, here the heat had effects, but NOT on the flight as total.
It could be solved with unloading some living cargo...

Hessel

[Chris Kilroy]

BREAKING NEWS: It gets hot in the desert

CRJs were the only aircraft affected, just as they're always the only aircraft affected when PHX climbs to 118F, which happens once every few years and has been happening since the airport was built. CRJ performance data only goes up to 48C, and as we all know, you can't fly without numbers.

[Jeroen Hoppenbrouwers]

I'm not sure whether it's just additional math that produces those table rows. It may be that you can only extrapolate so far, and beyond this you need to back yourself up with actual measured data. Of course the respective manufacturers will organize for this data to be gathered, but in the mean time you're stuck without takeoff data and thus, as others said, no-go.


Hoppie

[asboyd]

Hoppie, You only live once.... if you never take chances you don't appreciate the little things... like getting off the ground:)